ML HOME RUN MODEL

Poisson XGBoost trained on 2017–2023 box scores, evaluated on the 2024 hold-out season. Ranked by Poisson λ (expected HR rate)— statistically principled for rare count outcomes at ~4–6% base rate. Features: rolling 15G & 60G HR power metrics, Statcast barrel%/exit velo, opposing SP stats, park altitude and HR factor, and weather. Updated daily at 9 AM ET.